Karachi: Pakistan July CPI inflation stood at 9.6% as against 11.26% in June 2012. The reported CPI is the lowest since December 2009.
On MoM basis, inflation stood at -0.3% as against 0.04% last month, which after 6-months have come in negative.
Though still awaiting for the detail break-up, we believe the subdued number in the month of June is a reflection of decline in average petroleum prices and 18% decrease in consumer gas tariff effective from July 2012.
Further, we believe the Ramadan factor has not been incorporated in these inflation numbers
These soft numbers attach a lower side bias to our average FY13 inflation forecast range of 10-11%.
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