Karachi: Pakistan’s November inflation numbers gauged by CPI further dipped to the lowest level of its revised based at 6.9% as against 7.7% in October. The number is far below the market consensus which was expecting it in the range of 7.5-8%.
On MoM basis, inflation stood at –ve 0.4% as against 0.4% last month, while the average inflation in 5MFY13 stood at 8.4% versus 10.2% in the same period last year.
The subdued food inflation is the chief contributor on account of post Eid phenomena.
The soft inflation number heightened the chance of average FY13 inflation to fall well below the gov’t expectation of 9.5%, even after incorporating in high MoM inflation in 2H.
The soft inflation numbers could allow the room for the central bank to continue the process of monetary easing and we expect another 50-100bps cut in the policy rate in the upcoming monetary policy schedule due in second week of December.
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